TGM's two-stage DCF values Rapid7, Inc. (RPD) between $22.24 and $46.91 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $32.31. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$12.15 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.1%/yr | 10.2% | $22.24 |
| Base case | 13.1%/yr | 9.2% | $32.31 |
| Optimistic | 16.1%/yr | 8.2% | $46.91 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $70.67 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$12.15
Market-Implied Growth
-2.2%/yr
vs +13.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$22.24 – $46.91
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RPD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $122.2M · 0.07B shares · net debt $721.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$32.31
+166.0% vs $12.15
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.15; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $42.13 | $46.49 | $51.77 | $58.30 | $66.58 |
| 8.2% | $33.80 | $36.80 | $40.32 | $44.51 | $49.59 |
| 9.2% | $27.64 | $29.81 | $32.31 | $35.20 | $38.59 |
| 10.2% | $22.92 | $24.55 | $26.39 | $28.48 | $30.88 |
| 11.2% | $19.19 | $20.45 | $21.85 | $23.42 | $25.20 |
