TGM's two-stage DCF values Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) between $104.12 and $181.07 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $134.91. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$229.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.4%/yr | 9.5% | $104.12 |
| Base case | 10.4%/yr | 8.5% | $134.91 |
| Optimistic | 13.4%/yr | 7.5% | $181.07 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $122.14 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$229.31
Market-Implied Growth
+24.5%/yr
vs +13.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$104.12 – $181.07
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ROST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.32B shares · net cash $3.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$134.91
-41.2% vs $229.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $229.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $166 | $181 | $200 | $224 | $257 |
| 7.5% | $139 | $149 | $161 | $176 | $194 |
| 8.5% | $120 | $127 | $135 | $144 | $156 |
| 9.5% | $105 | $110 | $116 | $123 | $131 |
| 10.5% | $94.17 | $98.03 | $102 | $107 | $113 |
