Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)'s fair value in a range of $92.05 – $126.05 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $229.45 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $229.45, the market is pricing in roughly +18.1%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -6.3%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$229.45
Fair-Value Range
$92.05 – $126.05
Market-Implied Growth
+18.1%/yr
vs -6.3% 5Y actual
ROST DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.32B shares · net cash $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$92.05
-59.9% vs $229.45
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $229.45; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $113 | $118 | $124 | $132 | $141 |
| 9.0% | $97.77 | $101 | $106 | $111 | $117 |
| 10.0% | $86.45 | $89.08 | $92.05 | $95.45 | $99.38 |
| 11.0% | $77.56 | $79.48 | $81.63 | $84.05 | $86.80 |
| 12.0% | $70.39 | $71.84 | $73.43 | $75.21 | $77.19 |
About Ross Stores, Inc.
Ross Stores, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, manages a chain of off-price retail establishments focusing on apparel and home goods. These stores operate under two main brand names: Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS. Their product selection primarily includes clothing, accessories, footwear, and household decor. The Ross Dress for Less outlets primarily serve middle-income households, offering merchandise at prices considerably lower than traditional department and specialty stores. Conversely, dd's DISCOUNTS stores cater to moderate-income households, providing products at prices below those typically found in department and discount stores. As of July 5, 2022, the company had approximately 1,950 stores operating across 40 states, the District of Columbia, and Guam. Ross Stores, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is based in Dublin, California.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel - Retail
- CEO
- James G. Conroy