TGM's two-stage DCF values Rollins, Inc. (ROL) between $21.15 and $41.26 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $28.99. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$32.49 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.3%/yr | 8.8% | $21.15 |
| Base case | 10.3%/yr | 7.8% | $28.99 |
| Optimistic | 13.3%/yr | 6.8% | $41.26 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $40.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$32.49
Market-Implied Growth
+13.0%/yr
vs +9.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$21.15 – $41.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ROL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $538.0M · 0.48B shares · net debt $509.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$28.99
-10.8% vs $32.49
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $32.49; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $37.60 | $42.08 | $47.91 | $55.82 | $67.16 |
| 6.8% | $30.06 | $32.83 | $36.25 | $40.56 | $46.17 |
| 7.8% | $24.92 | $26.78 | $28.99 | $31.67 | $34.95 |
| 8.8% | $21.19 | $22.52 | $24.05 | $25.85 | $27.98 |
| 9.8% | $18.37 | $19.36 | $20.47 | $21.75 | $23.23 |
