TGM's two-stage DCF values Rollins, Inc. (ROL) between $20.79 and $40.26 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $28.42. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$37.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +17.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.3%/yr | 8.9% | $20.79 |
| Base case | 10.3%/yr | 7.9% | $28.42 |
| Optimistic | 13.3%/yr | 6.9% | $40.26 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $44.71 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$37.74
Market-Implied Growth
+17.0%/yr
vs +9.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$20.79 – $40.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ROL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $538.0M · 0.48B shares · net debt $509.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$28.42
-24.7% vs $37.74
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $37.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $36.69 | $40.94 | $46.44 | $53.82 | $64.28 |
| 6.9% | $29.46 | $32.11 | $35.37 | $39.46 | $44.75 |
| 7.9% | $24.49 | $26.29 | $28.42 | $30.98 | $34.11 |
| 8.9% | $20.88 | $22.16 | $23.64 | $25.38 | $27.43 |
| 9.9% | $18.13 | $19.08 | $20.17 | $21.41 | $22.83 |
