Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ROKU
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($40.92) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.6%/yr | 12.5% | $28.94 |
| Base case | 17.6%/yr | 11.5% | $34.36 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $40.92 |
Current Price
$154.12
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$34.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ROKU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $193.1M · 0.15B shares · net cash $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$34.36
-77.7% vs $154.12
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $154.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $39.05 | $40.77 | $42.73 | $45.00 | $47.63 |
| 10.5% | $35.24 | $36.55 | $38.01 | $39.67 | $41.56 |
| 11.5% | $32.21 | $33.23 | $34.36 | $35.61 | $37.02 |
| 12.5% | $29.75 | $30.56 | $31.44 | $32.42 | $33.51 |
| 13.5% | $27.70 | $28.36 | $29.07 | $29.85 | $30.71 |
