Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ROK
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($108.64) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$427.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +44.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.5%/yr | 12.5% | $59.23 |
| Base case | 4.5%/yr | 11.5% | $80.24 |
| Optimistic | 7.5%/yr | 10.5% | $108.64 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $117.53 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$427.75
Market-Implied Growth
+44.1%/yr
vs +3.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$80.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ROK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $948.0M · 0.11B shares · net debt $2.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$80.24
-81.2% vs $427.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $427.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $97.33 | $104 | $111 | $119 | $128 |
| 10.5% | $83.49 | $88.24 | $93.56 | $99.59 | $106 |
| 11.5% | $72.44 | $76.14 | $80.24 | $84.82 | $89.97 |
| 12.5% | $63.40 | $66.35 | $69.60 | $73.17 | $77.13 |
| 13.5% | $55.88 | $58.28 | $60.89 | $63.74 | $66.87 |
