Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ROK
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($110.78) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$462.16 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +46.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.9%/yr | 12.5% | $60.55 |
| Base case | 4.9%/yr | 11.5% | $81.91 |
| Optimistic | 7.9%/yr | 10.5% | $110.78 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $117.38 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$462.16
Market-Implied Growth
+46.2%/yr
vs +3.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$81.91
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ROK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $948.0M · 0.11B shares · net debt $2.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$81.91
-82.3% vs $462.16
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $462.16; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $99.31 | $106 | $113 | $121 | $131 |
| 10.5% | $85.22 | $90.05 | $95.48 | $102 | $109 |
| 11.5% | $73.96 | $77.73 | $81.91 | $86.58 | $91.81 |
| 12.5% | $64.75 | $67.76 | $71.06 | $74.71 | $78.74 |
| 13.5% | $57.09 | $59.54 | $62.20 | $65.10 | $68.29 |
