Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ROAD
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($40.58) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$91.08 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +40.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.6% | $12.39 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.6% | $24.79 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.6% | $40.58 |
Current Price
$91.08
Market-Implied Growth
+40.1%/yr
vs +32.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$24.79
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ROAD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $90.2M · 0.06B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$24.79
-72.8% vs $91.08
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $91.08; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $37.73 | $43.83 | $51.41 | $61.09 | $73.89 |
| 7.6% | $26.61 | $30.64 | $35.47 | $41.34 | $48.63 |
| 8.6% | $18.65 | $21.49 | $24.79 | $28.67 | $33.32 |
| 9.6% | $12.68 | $14.77 | $17.14 | $19.88 | $23.06 |
| 10.6% | $8.05 | $9.63 | $11.41 | $13.42 | $15.71 |
