TGM's two-stage DCF values Rio Tinto Group (RIO) between $59.82 and $121.13 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $82.53. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$102.34 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $59.82 |
| Base case | 3.0%/yr | 7.5% | $82.53 |
| Optimistic | 6.0%/yr | 6.5% | $121.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $169.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$102.34
Market-Implied Growth
+7.6%/yr
vs +3.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$59.82 – $121.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RIO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.0B · 1.63B shares · net debt $13.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$82.53
-19.4% vs $102.34
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $102.34; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $109 | $124 | $143 | $170 | $211 |
| 6.5% | $85.64 | $94.35 | $105 | $119 | $138 |
| 7.5% | $69.92 | $75.65 | $82.53 | $90.93 | $101 |
| 8.5% | $58.69 | $62.71 | $67.40 | $72.93 | $79.57 |
| 9.5% | $50.27 | $53.23 | $56.59 | $60.48 | $65.00 |
