Rio Tinto Group (RIO) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Rio Tinto Group (RIO) between $64.08 and $132.40 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $90.37. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$93.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.9%/yr | 8.5% | $64.08 |
| Base case | 4.9%/yr | 7.5% | $90.37 |
| Optimistic | 7.9%/yr | 6.5% | $132.40 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $183.14 | |
Current Price
$93.74
Market-Implied Growth
+5.7%/yr
vs +4.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$64.08 – $132.40
model output — not a price target
RIO DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RIO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.0B · 1.62B shares · net debt $13.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$99.29
+5.9% vs $93.74
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $93.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $138 | $153 | $174 | $202 | $245 |
| 6.5% | $107 | $116 | $127 | $141 | $160 |
| 7.5% | $87.16 | $92.67 | $99.29 | $107 | $117 |
| 8.5% | $72.83 | $76.51 | $80.80 | $85.88 | $91.97 |
| 9.5% | $62.12 | $64.69 | $67.63 | $71.02 | $74.97 |
About Rio Tinto Group
Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia. The Aluminum and lithium segment is involved in bauxite mining; alumina refining; and aluminium smelting, and recycling, as well as mining and processing of lithium. The Copper segment engages in mining and refining of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other by-products and exploration activities. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines; and refineries, smelters, processing plants and power, and shipping facilities. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Industrial Materials
- CEO
- Simon Callas Trott