Why we don't show a single “fair value” for RIGL
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.9%/yr | 11.1% | $3.97 |
| Base case | 13.9%/yr | 10.1% | $5.27 |
| Optimistic | 16.9%/yr | 9.1% | $7.11 |
Current Price
$46.57
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$5.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RIGL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.2M · 0.02B shares · net debt $12.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$5.27
-88.7% vs $46.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $46.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $6.48 | $6.97 | $7.55 | $8.24 | $9.08 |
| 9.1% | $5.48 | $5.83 | $6.24 | $6.71 | $7.27 |
| 10.1% | $4.71 | $4.98 | $5.27 | $5.62 | $6.01 |
| 11.1% | $4.11 | $4.31 | $4.54 | $4.79 | $5.08 |
| 12.1% | $3.62 | $3.78 | $3.96 | $4.15 | $4.37 |
