Why we don't show a single “fair value” for RGEN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($39.45) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$175.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +57.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.1%/yr | 10.3% | $22.77 |
| Base case | 9.1%/yr | 9.3% | $29.59 |
| Optimistic | 12.1%/yr | 8.3% | $39.45 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $26.34 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$175.00
Market-Implied Growth
+57.3%/yr
vs +9.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$29.59
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RGEN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $84.4M · 0.06B shares · net cash $2.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$29.59
-83.1% vs $175.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $175.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $36.09 | $38.95 | $42.40 | $46.64 | $52.00 |
| 8.3% | $30.59 | $32.57 | $34.89 | $37.64 | $40.96 |
| 9.3% | $26.51 | $27.94 | $29.59 | $31.50 | $33.73 |
| 10.3% | $23.36 | $24.44 | $25.66 | $27.05 | $28.64 |
| 11.3% | $20.86 | $21.70 | $22.63 | $23.68 | $24.86 |
