TGM's two-stage DCF values RF Industries, Ltd. (RFIL) between $2.45 and $4.34 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $3.24. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$8.65 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.9%/yr | 11.5% | $2.45 |
| Base case | 12.9%/yr | 10.5% | $3.24 |
| Optimistic | 15.9%/yr | 9.5% | $4.34 |
Current Price
$8.65
Market-Implied Growth
+37.1%/yr
vs +12.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$2.45 – $4.34
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RFIL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.1M · 0.01B shares · net debt $4.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$3.24
-62.5% vs $8.65
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.65; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $3.95 | $4.23 | $4.56 | $4.94 | $5.40 |
| 9.5% | $3.37 | $3.57 | $3.80 | $4.07 | $4.39 |
| 10.5% | $2.91 | $3.07 | $3.24 | $3.44 | $3.67 |
| 11.5% | $2.55 | $2.67 | $2.81 | $2.96 | $3.13 |
| 12.5% | $2.26 | $2.35 | $2.46 | $2.58 | $2.71 |
