Why we don't show a single “fair value” for RDVT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($29.91) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$78.52 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +52.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $20.48 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $24.93 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $29.91 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $12.80 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$78.52
Market-Implied Growth
+52.9%/yr
vs +20.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$24.93
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RDVT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $14.9M · 0.01B shares · net cash $43.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$24.93
-68.3% vs $78.52
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $78.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $28.79 | $30.21 | $31.82 | $33.69 | $35.86 |
| 10.5% | $25.66 | $26.73 | $27.94 | $29.30 | $30.86 |
| 11.5% | $23.17 | $24.00 | $24.93 | $25.96 | $27.12 |
| 12.5% | $21.14 | $21.80 | $22.53 | $23.34 | $24.23 |
| 13.5% | $19.46 | $19.99 | $20.58 | $21.22 | $21.93 |
