TGM's two-stage DCF values Rocky Brands, Inc. (RCKY) between $25.41 and $49.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $35.77. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$46.15 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.6%/yr | 12.5% | $25.41 |
| Base case | 5.6%/yr | 11.5% | $35.77 |
| Optimistic | 8.6%/yr | 10.5% | $49.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $19.58 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$46.15
Market-Implied Growth
+10.3%/yr
vs +5.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$25.41 – $49.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RCKY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $30.3M · 0.01B shares · net debt $119.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$35.77
-22.5% vs $46.15
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $46.15; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $44.23 | $47.33 | $50.86 | $54.93 | $59.68 |
| 10.5% | $37.37 | $39.73 | $42.37 | $45.35 | $48.76 |
| 11.5% | $31.90 | $33.73 | $35.77 | $38.04 | $40.58 |
| 12.5% | $27.42 | $28.88 | $30.49 | $32.26 | $34.23 |
| 13.5% | $23.70 | $24.89 | $26.18 | $27.59 | $29.14 |
