TGM's two-stage DCF values QuinStreet, Inc. (QNST) between $22.55 and $40.88 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $30.31. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$14.82 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.7% | $22.55 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.7% | $30.31 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.7% | $40.88 |
Current Price
$14.82
Market-Implied Growth
+0.0%/yr
vs +21.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$22.55 – $40.88
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for QNST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $44.8M · 0.06B shares · net cash $58.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$30.31
+104.5% vs $14.82
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.82; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $39.15 | $43.80 | $49.90 | $58.26 | $70.41 |
| 6.7% | $31.38 | $34.23 | $37.76 | $42.23 | $48.10 |
| 7.7% | $26.15 | $28.04 | $30.31 | $33.05 | $36.44 |
| 8.7% | $22.38 | $23.72 | $25.28 | $27.10 | $29.28 |
| 9.7% | $19.54 | $20.53 | $21.65 | $22.95 | $24.45 |
