TGM's two-stage DCF values PubMatic, Inc. (PUBM) between $13.67 and $20.50 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $16.57. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$18.35 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.1%/yr | 12.5% | $13.67 |
| Base case | 9.1%/yr | 11.5% | $16.57 |
| Optimistic | 12.1%/yr | 10.5% | $20.50 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $12.87 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$18.35
Market-Implied Growth
+12.1%/yr
vs +9.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.67 – $20.50
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PUBM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $45.6M · 0.05B shares · net cash $101.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$16.57
-9.7% vs $18.35
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $18.35; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $18.99 | $19.88 | $20.89 | $22.05 | $23.40 |
| 10.5% | $17.03 | $17.70 | $18.46 | $19.31 | $20.29 |
| 11.5% | $15.47 | $15.99 | $16.57 | $17.22 | $17.95 |
| 12.5% | $14.20 | $14.61 | $15.07 | $15.58 | $16.14 |
| 13.5% | $13.14 | $13.47 | $13.84 | $14.25 | $14.69 |
