TGM's two-stage DCF values Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock (PTRN) between $6.56 and $9.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $7.90. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$17.77 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +44.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.2% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.2% | $6.56 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.2% | $7.90 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.2% | $9.47 |
Current Price
$17.77
Market-Implied Growth
+44.2%/yr
Model Scenario Range
$6.56 – $9.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PTRN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $38.4M · 0.16B shares · net cash $280.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$7.90
-55.5% vs $17.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $17.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $9.14 | $9.65 | $10.24 | $10.95 | $11.80 |
| 9.2% | $8.11 | $8.48 | $8.89 | $9.38 | $9.95 |
| 10.2% | $7.32 | $7.59 | $7.90 | $8.25 | $8.65 |
| 11.2% | $6.69 | $6.90 | $7.14 | $7.40 | $7.70 |
| 12.2% | $6.19 | $6.35 | $6.54 | $6.74 | $6.97 |
