A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$4.87 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $0.19 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $1.05 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $15.62 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.87
Market-Implied Growth
+25.7%/yr
vs -9.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PTON (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $119.0M · 0.42B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$0.19
-96.1% vs $4.87
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $0.70 | $0.88 | $1.10 | $1.34 | $1.62 |
| 10.5% | $0.29 | $0.43 | $0.59 | $0.76 | $0.97 |
| 11.5% | N/A | $0.07 | $0.19 | $0.33 | $0.48 |
| 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $0.10 |
| 13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |