Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PTEN
Even the conservative scenario ($26.60) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$11.37 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $26.60 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $37.22 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $51.94 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $7.19 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$11.37
Market-Implied Growth
-7.1%/yr
vs +37.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$37.22
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PTEN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $381.2M · 0.38B shares · net debt $800.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$37.22
+227.5% vs $11.37
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $11.37; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $49.59 | $56.29 | $65.22 | $77.72 | $96.45 |
| 6.5% | $38.67 | $42.69 | $47.70 | $54.14 | $62.73 |
| 7.5% | $31.42 | $34.06 | $37.22 | $41.08 | $45.90 |
| 8.5% | $26.25 | $28.10 | $30.25 | $32.79 | $35.83 |
| 9.5% | $22.40 | $23.75 | $25.29 | $27.07 | $29.14 |
