Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PSMT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($84.21) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$172.23 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.1%/yr | 9.0% | $45.68 |
| Base case | 10.1%/yr | 8.0% | $60.83 |
| Optimistic | 13.1%/yr | 7.0% | $84.21 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$172.23
Market-Implied Growth
+37.2%/yr
vs -1.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$60.83
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PSMT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $71.1M · 0.03B shares · net cash $53.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$60.83
-64.7% vs $172.23
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $172.23; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $77.09 | $85.33 | $95.92 | $110 | $130 |
| 7.0% | $62.91 | $68.11 | $74.46 | $82.40 | $92.59 |
| 8.0% | $53.11 | $56.65 | $60.83 | $65.84 | $71.96 |
| 9.0% | $45.94 | $48.48 | $51.41 | $54.82 | $58.85 |
| 10.0% | $40.47 | $42.37 | $44.51 | $46.96 | $49.79 |
