TGM's two-stage DCF values Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) between $21.61 and $34.95 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $27.45. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$20.48 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.5% | $21.61 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.5% | $27.45 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.5% | $34.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $43.59 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$20.48
Market-Implied Growth
+9.3%/yr
vs +22.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$21.61 – $34.95
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PRVA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $92.5M · 0.13B shares · net cash $479.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$27.45
+34.0% vs $20.48
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $20.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $33.61 | $36.54 | $40.20 | $44.91 | $51.19 |
| 7.5% | $28.30 | $30.23 | $32.54 | $35.37 | $38.89 |
| 8.5% | $24.53 | $25.88 | $27.45 | $29.31 | $31.53 |
| 9.5% | $21.72 | $22.70 | $23.83 | $25.13 | $26.64 |
| 10.5% | $19.53 | $20.28 | $21.12 | $22.07 | $23.16 |
