Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PRGS
Even the conservative scenario ($84.67) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$36.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -8.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.7%/yr | 9.2% | $84.67 |
| Base case | 13.7%/yr | 8.2% | $119.28 |
| Optimistic | 16.7%/yr | 7.2% | $172.04 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $151.21 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$36.90
Market-Implied Growth
-8.0%/yr
vs +13.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$119.28
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PRGS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $196.2M · 0.04B shares · net debt $726.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$119.28
+223.3% vs $36.90
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $156 | $174 | $198 | $228 | $269 |
| 7.2% | $124 | $136 | $150 | $168 | $190 |
| 8.2% | $102 | $110 | $119 | $131 | $144 |
| 9.2% | $85.23 | $91.06 | $97.75 | $106 | $115 |
| 10.2% | $72.55 | $76.93 | $81.87 | $87.49 | $93.94 |
