Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PPLI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($5.45) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$41.58 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +46.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.4% | $1.00 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.4% | $2.57 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.4% | $5.45 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $10.87 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$41.58
Market-Implied Growth
+46.3%/yr
vs -14.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$2.57
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PPLI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $45.1M · 0.07B shares · net debt $465.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$2.57
-93.8% vs $41.58
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $41.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $4.40 | $5.20 | $6.16 | $7.33 | $8.81 |
| 8.4% | $2.85 | $3.41 | $4.06 | $4.83 | $5.75 |
| 9.4% | $1.69 | $2.10 | $2.57 | $3.10 | $3.73 |
| 10.4% | $0.80 | $1.11 | $1.45 | $1.85 | $2.29 |
| 11.4% | $0.08 | $0.32 | $0.59 | $0.89 | $1.22 |
