TGM's two-stage DCF values Public Policy Holding Company, Inc. (PPHC) between $19.31 and $37.75 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $26.84. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$10.85 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.7%/yr | 8.5% | $19.31 |
| Base case | 17.7%/yr | 7.5% | $26.84 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $37.75 |
Current Price
$10.85
Market-Implied Growth
-2.5%/yr
vs +17.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$19.31 – $37.75
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PPHC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $18.2M · 0.03B shares · net debt $26.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$26.84
+147.4% vs $10.85
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $10.85; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $35.61 | $40.35 | $46.68 | $55.53 | $68.81 |
| 6.5% | $27.87 | $30.71 | $34.27 | $38.83 | $44.92 |
| 7.5% | $22.73 | $24.60 | $26.84 | $29.58 | $32.99 |
| 8.5% | $19.07 | $20.38 | $21.90 | $23.70 | $25.86 |
| 9.5% | $16.34 | $17.30 | $18.39 | $19.65 | $21.11 |
