PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PPG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($58.20) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$118.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.4% | $26.27 |
| Base case | 2.4%/yr | 9.4% | $38.02 |
| Optimistic | 5.4%/yr | 8.4% | $58.20 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $143.74 | |
Current Price
$118.25
Market-Implied Growth
+23.3%/yr
vs -8.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$38.02
model output — not a price target
PPG DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PPG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $931.0M · 0.22B shares · net debt $5.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$37.90
-67.9% vs $118.25
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $118.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $53.36 | $57.73 | $63.00 | $69.46 | $77.57 |
| 8.4% | $42.03 | $44.93 | $48.32 | $52.34 | $57.19 |
| 9.4% | $33.57 | $35.59 | $37.90 | $40.57 | $43.70 |
| 10.4% | $27.02 | $28.48 | $30.12 | $31.97 | $34.10 |
| 11.4% | $21.80 | $22.88 | $24.08 | $25.42 | $26.93 |
About PPG Industries, Inc.
PPG Industries, Inc. operates globally as a manufacturer and distributor of paints, protective coatings, and various specialty materials. Its Performance Coatings division offers an extensive range of products, including paints, solvents, adhesives, sealants, and software, designed for the repair and refurbishment of automotive and commercial vehicles, light industrial applications, and signage. This segment also supplies advanced coatings, sealants, transparent components (such as transparent armor), engineered materials, and chemical management services to the commercial, military, and general aviation aerospace sectors. Furthermore, it develops protective coatings and finishes for metals and large-scale structures, serving metal fabricators, heavy-duty maintenance contractors, and manufacturers of ships, bridges, and rail cars. Architectural offerings include paints, wood stains, adhesives, and sundry items for both professional contractors and individual consumers for the decoration and upkeep of residential and commercial buildings. Additionally, it provides paints, thermoplastics, and other advanced solutions for pavement marking. The Industrial Coatings segment delivers specialized coatings, adhesives, sealants, and metal pretreatment solutions. These are applied across a diverse array of manufactured goods, including appliances, agricultural and construction machinery, consumer electronics, automotive components, building materials, kitchenware, and transportation vehicles, often supported by on-site application services. This segment also produces coatings specifically for packaging, such as metal cans, closures, plastic tubes, and promotional or specialty containers. Beyond coatings, PPG innovates with unique materials like amorphous precipitated silica for tires and battery separators; TESLIN substrates utilized in labels, e-passports, driver's licenses, and identification cards; as well as organic light-emitting diode (OLED) materials, display and lighting lens components, optical lenses, color-changing technologies, and photochromic dyes. Founded in 1883, PPG Industries, Inc. is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Chemicals - Specialty
- CEO
- Timothy Knavish