TGM's two-stage DCF values Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) between $83.02 and $128.52 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $103.71. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$232.21 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +41.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.7% | $83.02 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.7% | $103.71 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.7% | $128.52 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $37.00 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$232.21
Market-Implied Growth
+41.7%/yr
vs +19.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$83.02 – $128.52
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for POWL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $125.7M · 0.04B shares · net cash $450.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$103.71
-55.3% vs $232.21
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $232.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $124 | $132 | $142 | $154 | $169 |
| 8.7% | $107 | $113 | $120 | $128 | $137 |
| 9.7% | $94.35 | $98.73 | $104 | $109 | $116 |
| 10.7% | $84.56 | $87.90 | $91.64 | $95.86 | $101 |
| 11.7% | $76.74 | $79.35 | $82.24 | $85.46 | $89.06 |
