TGM's two-stage DCF values Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) between $79.48 and $120.89 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $98.50. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$182.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +36.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.1% | $79.48 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.1% | $98.50 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.1% | $120.89 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $35.52 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$182.22
Market-Implied Growth
+36.2%/yr
vs +20.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$79.48 – $120.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for POWL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $125.7M · 0.04B shares · net cash $450.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$98.50
-45.9% vs $182.22
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $182.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $116 | $124 | $132 | $142 | $155 |
| 9.1% | $101 | $107 | $113 | $120 | $128 |
| 10.1% | $90.16 | $94.07 | $98.50 | $104 | $109 |
| 11.1% | $81.23 | $84.25 | $87.61 | $91.39 | $95.65 |
| 12.1% | $74.03 | $76.41 | $79.04 | $81.95 | $85.19 |
