TGM's two-stage DCF values Insulet Corp. (PODD) between $52.10 and $88.72 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $68.71. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$141.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +36.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.6% | $52.10 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.6% | $68.71 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.6% | $88.72 |
Current Price
$141.17
Market-Implied Growth
+36.4%/yr
vs +25.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$52.10 – $88.72
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PODD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $187.8M · 0.07B shares · net debt $285.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$68.71
-51.3% vs $141.17
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $141.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $84.77 | $91.62 | $99.81 | $110 | $122 |
| 8.6% | $71.26 | $76.08 | $81.68 | $88.28 | $96.16 |
| 9.6% | $61.13 | $64.67 | $68.71 | $73.35 | $78.74 |
| 10.6% | $53.27 | $55.96 | $58.97 | $62.39 | $66.27 |
| 11.6% | $46.99 | $49.09 | $51.41 | $54.01 | $56.92 |
