Insulet Corp. (PODD) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PODD
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($67.88) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$148.88 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +44.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.2% | $42.14 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.2% | $54.23 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.2% | $67.88 |
Current Price
$148.88
Market-Implied Growth
+44.7%/yr
vs +24.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$54.23
model output — not a price target
PODD DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PODD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $187.8M · 0.07B shares · net debt $285.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$91.81
-38.3% vs $148.88
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $148.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $116 | $122 | $128 | $136 | $145 |
| 10.2% | $98.79 | $103 | $108 | $113 | $119 |
| 11.2% | $85.34 | $88.40 | $91.81 | $95.63 | $99.95 |
| 12.2% | $74.58 | $76.89 | $79.43 | $82.25 | $85.40 |
| 13.2% | $65.80 | $67.57 | $69.51 | $71.64 | $73.99 |
About Insulet Corp.
Insulet Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells insulin delivery systems for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States and internationally. The company offers Omnipod platform products comprising Omnipod 5 automated insulin delivery system, which includes a proprietary AID algorithm embedded in the pod that integrates with a third-party continuous glucose monitor to obtain glucose values through wireless Bluetooth communication; Omnipod DASH insulin management system that features a Bluetooth enabled pod that is controlled by a smartphone-like personal diabetes manager with a color touch screen user interface; and the Omnipod Insulin Management System. It also provides pods for Amgen for use in the Neulasta Onpro kit, which is a delivery system to help reduce the risk of infection after intense chemotherapy. The company sells its products to end-users through the pharmacy channel; and independent distributors. Insulet Corporation was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Acton, Massachusetts.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Devices
- CEO
- Ashley A. McEvoy