TGM's two-stage DCF values Insulet Corp. (PODD) between $52.85 and $90.40 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $69.84. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$139.38 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.5% | $52.85 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.5% | $69.84 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.5% | $90.40 |
Current Price
$139.38
Market-Implied Growth
+35.6%/yr
vs +25.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$52.85 – $90.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PODD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $187.8M · 0.07B shares · net debt $285.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$69.84
-49.9% vs $139.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $139.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $86.37 | $93.49 | $102 | $112 | $125 |
| 8.5% | $72.44 | $77.42 | $83.22 | $90.08 | $98.29 |
| 9.5% | $62.03 | $65.67 | $69.84 | $74.63 | $80.22 |
| 10.5% | $53.97 | $56.73 | $59.84 | $63.35 | $67.36 |
| 11.5% | $47.56 | $49.71 | $52.09 | $54.75 | $57.75 |
