Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PN
Even the conservative scenario ($25.25) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $25.25 |
| Base case | 2.3%/yr | 7.5% | $31.53 |
| Optimistic | 5.3%/yr | 6.5% | $43.27 |
Current Price
$2.43
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$31.53
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.8M · 0.00B shares · net cash $5.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$31.53
+1197.5% vs $2.43
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $39.63 | $44.03 | $49.90 | $58.10 | $70.39 |
| 6.5% | $32.47 | $35.12 | $38.42 | $42.66 | $48.31 |
| 7.5% | $27.70 | $29.44 | $31.53 | $34.08 | $37.26 |
| 8.5% | $24.29 | $25.51 | $26.94 | $28.62 | $30.63 |
| 9.5% | $21.74 | $22.63 | $23.66 | $24.84 | $26.21 |
