TGM's two-stage DCF values CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) between $23.45 and $59.41 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $38.01. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$24.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.0%/yr | 9.9% | $23.45 |
| Base case | 11.0%/yr | 8.9% | $38.01 |
| Optimistic | 14.0%/yr | 7.9% | $59.41 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $48.87 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$24.83
Market-Implied Growth
+5.1%/yr
vs +11.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$23.45 – $59.41
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PMTS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $30.8M · 0.01B shares · net debt $265.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$38.01
+53.1% vs $24.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $24.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $52.44 | $59.03 | $67.12 | $77.27 | $90.39 |
| 7.9% | $40.11 | $44.57 | $49.85 | $56.20 | $63.99 |
| 8.9% | $31.14 | $34.33 | $38.01 | $42.30 | $47.39 |
| 9.9% | $24.32 | $26.69 | $29.38 | $32.45 | $36.00 |
| 10.9% | $18.97 | $20.79 | $22.82 | $25.11 | $27.70 |
