TGM's two-stage DCF values Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) between $80.40 and $181.82 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $120.57. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$256.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.5%/yr | 9.2% | $80.40 |
| Base case | 5.5%/yr | 8.2% | $120.57 |
| Optimistic | 8.5%/yr | 7.2% | $181.82 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $181.27 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$256.04
Market-Implied Growth
+20.5%/yr
vs +4.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$80.40 – $181.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PKG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $699.7M · 0.09B shares · net debt $3.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$120.57
-52.9% vs $256.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $256.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $162 | $183 | $209 | $243 | $290 |
| 7.2% | $126 | $139 | $155 | $175 | $200 |
| 8.2% | $101 | $110 | $121 | $133 | $149 |
| 9.2% | $82.12 | $88.71 | $96.28 | $105 | $115 |
| 10.2% | $67.76 | $72.72 | $78.31 | $84.67 | $91.97 |
