Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PICS
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor PicS N.V. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $38.37 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $46.44 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $55.47 |
Current Price
$12.59
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$46.44
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PICS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $247.3M · 0.13B shares · net cash $889.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$46.44
+268.9% vs $12.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $53.44 | $56.01 | $58.94 | $62.31 | $66.25 |
| 10.5% | $47.77 | $49.71 | $51.90 | $54.37 | $57.19 |
| 11.5% | $43.25 | $44.76 | $46.44 | $48.32 | $50.42 |
| 12.5% | $39.57 | $40.78 | $42.10 | $43.56 | $45.18 |
| 13.5% | $36.53 | $37.50 | $38.56 | $39.73 | $41.00 |
