Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PGNY
Even the conservative scenario ($52.31) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$25.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.1% | $52.31 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.1% | $68.05 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.1% | $87.50 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $19.98 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$25.91
Market-Implied Growth
-6.3%/yr
vs +23.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$68.05
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PGNY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $179.4M · 0.08B shares · net cash $112.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$68.05
+162.6% vs $25.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $83.81 | $90.87 | $99.45 | $110 | $124 |
| 8.1% | $70.41 | $75.24 | $80.92 | $87.71 | $95.97 |
| 9.1% | $60.57 | $64.05 | $68.05 | $72.69 | $78.16 |
| 10.1% | $53.06 | $55.66 | $58.60 | $61.94 | $65.79 |
| 11.1% | $47.14 | $49.14 | $51.37 | $53.88 | $56.71 |
