TGM's two-stage DCF values Pfizer Inc. (PFE) between $18.09 and $45.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $28.80. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$27.89 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.3%/yr | 8.5% | $18.09 |
| Base case | 6.3%/yr | 7.5% | $28.80 |
| Optimistic | 9.3%/yr | 6.5% | $45.92 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $36.55 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$27.89
Market-Implied Growth
+5.8%/yr
vs -3.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$18.09 – $45.92
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PFE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $9.5B · 5.70B shares · net debt $64.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$28.80
+3.3% vs $27.89
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $27.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $40.79 | $47.30 | $55.98 | $68.12 | $86.32 |
| 6.5% | $30.20 | $34.10 | $38.99 | $45.26 | $53.61 |
| 7.5% | $23.14 | $25.71 | $28.80 | $32.56 | $37.26 |
| 8.5% | $18.11 | $19.91 | $22.01 | $24.49 | $27.46 |
| 9.5% | $14.33 | $15.66 | $17.17 | $18.91 | $20.93 |
