Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PEN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($153.59) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$321.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +46.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.5%/yr | 8.7% | $83.56 |
| Base case | 17.5%/yr | 7.7% | $111.95 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.7% | $153.59 |
Current Price
$321.00
Market-Implied Growth
+46.0%/yr
vs +17.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$111.95
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PEN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $114.7M · 0.04B shares · net cash $186.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$111.95
-65.1% vs $321.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $321.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $144 | $161 | $184 | $214 | $258 |
| 6.7% | $116 | $126 | $139 | $156 | $177 |
| 7.7% | $96.74 | $104 | $112 | $122 | $134 |
| 8.7% | $82.97 | $87.87 | $93.56 | $100 | $108 |
| 9.7% | $72.60 | $76.22 | $80.33 | $85.06 | $90.53 |
