Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PCYO
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Pure Cycle Corporation right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years; free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.6%/yr | 11.2% | $1.52 |
| Base case | 8.6%/yr | 10.2% | $1.77 |
| Optimistic | 11.6%/yr | 9.2% | $2.12 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $6.73 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$10.95
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1.77
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PCYO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6M · 0.02B shares · net cash $15.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$1.77
-83.8% vs $10.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $10.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $1.99 | $2.08 | $2.19 | $2.31 | $2.46 |
| 9.2% | $1.81 | $1.87 | $1.95 | $2.03 | $2.13 |
| 10.2% | $1.67 | $1.71 | $1.77 | $1.83 | $1.90 |
| 11.2% | $1.55 | $1.59 | $1.63 | $1.68 | $1.73 |
| 12.2% | $1.46 | $1.49 | $1.53 | $1.56 | $1.60 |
