TGM's two-stage DCF values Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (PBYI) between $5.83 and $9.01 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $6.96. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$9.50 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.2% | $5.83 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.2% | $6.96 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.2% | $9.01 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $15.41 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$9.50
Market-Implied Growth
+9.9%/yr
vs +0.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$5.83 – $9.01
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PBYI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $26.6M · 0.05B shares · net cash $7.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.96
-26.7% vs $9.50
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $9.50; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $8.23 | $8.74 | $9.34 | $10.06 | $10.93 |
| 9.2% | $7.18 | $7.55 | $7.97 | $8.47 | $9.05 |
| 10.2% | $6.36 | $6.64 | $6.96 | $7.32 | $7.73 |
| 11.2% | $5.72 | $5.94 | $6.18 | $6.45 | $6.75 |
| 12.2% | $5.20 | $5.37 | $5.56 | $5.77 | $6.00 |
