TGM's two-stage DCF values Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) between $27.15 and $61.13 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $38.73. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$48.01 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.7% | $27.15 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.7% | $38.73 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.7% | $61.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $45.69 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$48.01
Market-Implied Growth
+5.7%/yr
vs +2.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$27.15 – $61.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PBA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.58B shares · net debt $9.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$38.73
-19.3% vs $48.01
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $48.01; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $54.02 | $62.10 | $72.69 | $87.19 | $108 |
| 6.7% | $40.58 | $45.53 | $51.66 | $59.45 | $69.65 |
| 7.7% | $31.47 | $34.78 | $38.73 | $43.51 | $49.42 |
| 8.7% | $24.89 | $27.24 | $29.96 | $33.16 | $36.96 |
| 9.7% | $19.92 | $21.65 | $23.63 | $25.89 | $28.52 |
