TGM's two-stage DCF values Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) between $58.77 and $129.88 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $87.56. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$66.63 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.6% | $58.77 |
| Base case | 3.3%/yr | 9.6% | $87.56 |
| Optimistic | 6.3%/yr | 8.6% | $129.88 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $80.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$66.63
Market-Implied Growth
-0.9%/yr
vs +13.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$58.77 – $129.88
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PATK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $291.4M · 0.03B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$87.56
+31.4% vs $66.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $66.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $114 | $126 | $140 | $156 | $177 |
| 8.6% | $91.84 | $99.93 | $109 | $120 | $134 |
| 9.6% | $74.81 | $80.77 | $87.56 | $95.37 | $104 |
| 10.6% | $61.53 | $66.07 | $71.17 | $76.92 | $83.47 |
| 11.6% | $50.89 | $54.45 | $58.38 | $62.77 | $67.68 |