TGM's two-stage DCF values UiPath Inc. (PATH) between $13.94 and $22.34 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $17.70. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$14.07 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.2% | $13.94 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.2% | $17.70 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.2% | $22.34 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $23.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$14.07
Market-Implied Growth
+11.5%/yr
vs +18.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.94 – $22.34
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PATH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $298.7M · 0.53B shares · net cash $871.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$17.70
+25.8% vs $14.07
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.07; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $21.45 | $23.11 | $25.12 | $27.61 | $30.77 |
| 8.2% | $18.27 | $19.42 | $20.76 | $22.36 | $24.29 |
| 9.2% | $15.93 | $16.76 | $17.70 | $18.80 | $20.10 |
| 10.2% | $14.13 | $14.75 | $15.45 | $16.25 | $17.16 |
| 11.2% | $12.71 | $13.19 | $13.73 | $14.32 | $15.00 |
