TGM's two-stage DCF values Pangaea Logistics Solutions, Ltd. (PANL) between $5.80 and $14.34 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $9.16. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$8.47 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.8%/yr | 9.0% | $5.80 |
| Base case | 7.8%/yr | 8.0% | $9.16 |
| Optimistic | 10.8%/yr | 7.0% | $14.34 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1.21 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$8.47
Market-Implied Growth
+6.5%/yr
vs +7.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$5.80 – $14.34
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PANL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $36.9M · 0.07B shares · net debt $260.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.16
+8.1% vs $8.47
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $12.73 | $14.55 | $16.88 | $19.98 | $24.32 |
| 7.0% | $9.61 | $10.76 | $12.16 | $13.90 | $16.15 |
| 8.0% | $7.46 | $8.24 | $9.16 | $10.26 | $11.61 |
| 9.0% | $5.88 | $6.44 | $7.08 | $7.83 | $8.72 |
| 10.0% | $4.67 | $5.09 | $5.56 | $6.10 | $6.73 |
