TGM's two-stage DCF values Open Text Corporation (OTEX) between $26.28 and $60.48 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $40.23. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$22.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.4%/yr | 10.2% | $26.28 |
| Base case | 8.4%/yr | 9.2% | $40.23 |
| Optimistic | 11.4%/yr | 8.2% | $60.48 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $70.84 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$22.67
Market-Implied Growth
+0.0%/yr
vs -0.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$26.28 – $60.48
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OTEX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $747.5M · 0.24B shares · net debt $4.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$40.23
+77.5% vs $22.67
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $22.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $53.59 | $59.52 | $66.70 | $75.58 | $86.85 |
| 8.2% | $42.25 | $46.34 | $51.13 | $56.84 | $63.76 |
| 9.2% | $33.88 | $36.83 | $40.23 | $44.16 | $48.79 |
| 10.2% | $27.44 | $29.66 | $32.17 | $35.02 | $38.30 |
| 11.2% | $22.34 | $24.06 | $25.98 | $28.12 | $30.54 |
