TGM's two-stage DCF values OneSpaWorld Holdings Ltd (OSW) between $14.21 and $25.20 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $19.05. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$23.24 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.6% | $14.21 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.6% | $19.05 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.6% | $25.20 |
Current Price
$23.24
Market-Implied Growth
+22.9%/yr
vs +118.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$14.21 – $25.20
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OSW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $63.2M · 0.10B shares · net debt $67.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$19.05
-18.0% vs $23.24
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $23.24; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $24.09 | $26.47 | $29.43 | $33.20 | $38.19 |
| 7.6% | $19.75 | $21.33 | $23.21 | $25.50 | $28.34 |
| 8.6% | $16.65 | $17.76 | $19.05 | $20.56 | $22.37 |
| 9.6% | $14.32 | $15.14 | $16.07 | $17.13 | $18.37 |
| 10.6% | $12.52 | $13.14 | $13.83 | $14.61 | $15.51 |
