TGM's two-stage DCF values Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS) between $4.16 and $7.27 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $5.36. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$10.39 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.3%/yr | 8.5% | $4.16 |
| Base case | 14.3%/yr | 7.5% | $5.36 |
| Optimistic | 17.3%/yr | 6.5% | $7.27 |
Current Price
$10.39
Market-Implied Growth
+33.6%/yr
vs +14.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$4.16 – $7.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OPXS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $917500 · 0.01B shares · net cash $6.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$5.36
-48.4% vs $10.39
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $10.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $6.74 | $7.48 | $8.48 | $9.87 | $11.96 |
| 6.5% | $5.52 | $5.97 | $6.53 | $7.25 | $8.20 |
| 7.5% | $4.71 | $5.01 | $5.36 | $5.79 | $6.33 |
| 8.5% | $4.14 | $4.34 | $4.58 | $4.87 | $5.21 |
| 9.5% | $3.71 | $3.86 | $4.03 | $4.23 | $4.46 |
