Why we don't show a single “fair value” for OPAD
Even the conservative scenario ($307.33) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $307.33 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $364.32 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $466.06 |
Current Price
$3.09
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$364.32
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OPAD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $163.6M · 0.00B shares · net debt $66.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$364.32
+11690.2% vs $3.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $3.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $425 | $447 | $472 | $501 | $535 |
| 10.5% | $376 | $393 | $411 | $433 | $457 |
| 11.5% | $337 | $350 | $364 | $380 | $399 |
| 12.5% | $305 | $315 | $327 | $339 | $353 |
| 13.5% | $278 | $287 | $296 | $306 | $317 |
