Why we don't show a single “fair value” for OMSE
Even the conservative scenario ($15.70) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $15.70 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $19.07 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $25.66 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $48.58 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.52
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$19.07
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OMSE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $32.8M · 0.04B shares · net cash $152.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$19.07
+321.8% vs $4.52
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $23.61 | $26.08 | $29.36 | $33.96 | $40.86 |
| 6.5% | $19.60 | $21.08 | $22.93 | $25.31 | $28.47 |
| 7.5% | $16.92 | $17.90 | $19.07 | $20.50 | $22.28 |
| 8.5% | $15.01 | $15.69 | $16.49 | $17.43 | $18.56 |
| 9.5% | $13.58 | $14.08 | $14.65 | $15.31 | $16.08 |
