TGM's two-stage DCF values Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) between $94.31 and $199.14 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $134.65. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$80.21 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.9%/yr | 8.5% | $94.31 |
| Base case | 9.9%/yr | 7.5% | $134.65 |
| Optimistic | 12.9%/yr | 6.5% | $199.14 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $129.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$80.21
Market-Implied Growth
-0.6%/yr
vs +1.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$94.31 – $199.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OMC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.5B · 0.27B shares · net debt $4.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$134.65
+67.9% vs $80.21
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $80.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $180 | $205 | $238 | $285 | $354 |
| 6.5% | $140 | $155 | $174 | $197 | $229 |
| 7.5% | $113 | $123 | $135 | $149 | $167 |
| 8.5% | $93.92 | $101 | $109 | $118 | $130 |
| 9.5% | $79.57 | $84.61 | $90.35 | $96.97 | $105 |
