TGM's two-stage DCF values Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) between $83.84 and $178.40 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $120.23. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$78.70 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.5%/yr | 8.5% | $83.84 |
| Base case | 7.5%/yr | 7.5% | $120.23 |
| Optimistic | 10.5%/yr | 6.5% | $178.40 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 31, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $143.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$78.70
Market-Implied Growth
-1.0%/yr
vs +6.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$83.84 – $178.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OMC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.5B · 0.27B shares · net debt $4.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$120.23
+52.8% vs $78.70
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $78.70; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $161 | $183 | $213 | $254 | $317 |
| 6.5% | $125 | $138 | $155 | $176 | $205 |
| 7.5% | $101 | $110 | $120 | $133 | $149 |
| 8.5% | $83.76 | $89.91 | $97.08 | $106 | $116 |
| 9.5% | $70.90 | $75.41 | $80.56 | $86.49 | $93.40 |
