TGM's two-stage DCF values Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) between $43.38 and $80.64 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $57.72. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$87.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.2%/yr | 8.5% | $43.38 |
| Base case | 9.2%/yr | 7.5% | $57.72 |
| Optimistic | 12.2%/yr | 6.5% | $80.64 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $65.57 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$87.91
Market-Implied Growth
+20.1%/yr
vs +9.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$43.38 – $80.64
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OLLI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $118.5M · 0.06B shares · net cash $258.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$57.72
-34.3% vs $87.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $87.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $73.95 | $82.76 | $94.49 | $111 | $136 |
| 6.5% | $59.61 | $64.90 | $71.50 | $79.97 | $91.27 |
| 7.5% | $50.07 | $53.55 | $57.72 | $62.80 | $69.16 |
| 8.5% | $43.27 | $45.70 | $48.54 | $51.89 | $55.91 |
| 9.5% | $38.18 | $39.96 | $42.00 | $44.35 | $47.08 |
