Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ODFL
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($84.39) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$187.01 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.1%/yr | 10.9% | $50.34 |
| Base case | 4.1%/yr | 9.9% | $64.45 |
| Optimistic | 7.1%/yr | 8.9% | $84.39 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $63.53 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$187.01
Market-Implied Growth
+31.7%/yr
vs +12.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$64.45
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ODFL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $902.2M · 0.21B shares · net cash $62.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$64.45
-65.5% vs $187.01
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $187.01; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $77.04 | $82.27 | $88.46 | $95.91 | $105 |
| 8.9% | $66.52 | $70.26 | $74.58 | $79.62 | $85.59 |
| 9.9% | $58.51 | $61.29 | $64.45 | $68.06 | $72.23 |
| 10.9% | $52.21 | $54.35 | $56.74 | $59.43 | $62.47 |
| 11.9% | $47.12 | $48.81 | $50.67 | $52.74 | $55.05 |
