Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)'s fair value in a range of $65.40 – $70.69 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $248.73 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $248.73, the market is pricing in roughly +22.2%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +4.5%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$248.73
Fair-Value Range
$65.40 – $70.69
Market-Implied Growth
+22.2%/yr
vs +4.5% 5Y actual
ODFL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $892.8M · 0.21B shares · net cash $62.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$70.69
-71.6% vs $248.73
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $248.73; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $87.77 | $92.26 | $97.56 | $104 | $112 |
| 9.0% | $75.43 | $78.50 | $82.04 | $86.17 | $91.04 |
| 10.0% | $66.03 | $68.21 | $70.69 | $73.51 | $76.77 |
| 11.0% | $58.65 | $60.24 | $62.03 | $64.04 | $66.32 |
| 12.0% | $52.69 | $53.89 | $55.22 | $56.69 | $58.34 |
About Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) serves as a prominent less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier operating across the United States and North America. The company's offerings include LTL shipping solutions at regional, inter-regional, and national levels, often featuring expedited delivery options. Furthermore, ODFL provides a variety of supplementary services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consultancy. As of December 31, 2021, its extensive infrastructure comprised 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers, supported by 3 fleet maintenance centers and 251 service facilities. Founded in 1934, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has its corporate headquarters situated in Thomasville, North Carolina.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Trucking
- CEO
- Kevin Freeman