TGM's two-stage DCF values News Corporation (NWSA) between $15.71 and $26.16 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $19.35. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$29.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.7% | $15.71 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.7% | $19.35 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.7% | $26.16 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $29.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$29.25
Market-Implied Growth
+12.1%/yr
vs -1.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$15.71 – $26.16
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NWSA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $664.5M · 0.56B shares · net cash $106.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$19.35
-33.8% vs $29.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $29.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $23.80 | $25.88 | $28.45 | $31.71 | $35.99 |
| 7.7% | $19.98 | $21.37 | $23.03 | $25.03 | $27.51 |
| 8.7% | $17.23 | $18.21 | $19.35 | $20.69 | $22.29 |
| 9.7% | $15.14 | $15.87 | $16.70 | $17.65 | $18.75 |
| 10.7% | $13.51 | $14.07 | $14.69 | $15.39 | $16.19 |
