TGM's two-stage DCF values News Corporation (NWSA) between $14.42 and $25.18 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $18.17. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$28.52 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.6% | $14.42 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.6% | $18.17 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.6% | $25.18 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.96 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$28.52
Market-Implied Growth
+12.3%/yr
vs -1.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$14.42 – $25.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NWSA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $664.5M · 0.56B shares · net debt $734.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$18.17
-36.3% vs $28.52
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $28.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $22.77 | $24.94 | $27.64 | $31.09 | $35.64 |
| 7.6% | $18.81 | $20.25 | $21.98 | $24.07 | $26.67 |
| 8.6% | $15.97 | $16.99 | $18.17 | $19.56 | $21.22 |
| 9.6% | $13.83 | $14.58 | $15.43 | $16.41 | $17.55 |
| 10.6% | $12.16 | $12.73 | $13.37 | $14.10 | $14.92 |
