Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NVT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($55.58) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$165.12 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +48.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.7%/yr | 11.8% | $30.75 |
| Base case | 13.7%/yr | 10.8% | $41.20 |
| Optimistic | 16.7%/yr | 9.8% | $55.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $67.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$165.12
Market-Implied Growth
+48.1%/yr
vs +10.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$41.20
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NVT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $417.2M · 0.16B shares · net debt $1.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$41.20
-75.0% vs $165.12
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $165.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $50.42 | $53.99 | $58.11 | $62.93 | $68.66 |
| 9.8% | $42.85 | $45.49 | $48.48 | $51.92 | $55.89 |
| 10.8% | $36.93 | $38.94 | $41.20 | $43.74 | $46.63 |
| 11.8% | $32.17 | $33.75 | $35.50 | $37.45 | $39.63 |
| 12.8% | $28.27 | $29.54 | $30.93 | $32.46 | $34.14 |
