TGM's two-stage DCF values Novartis AG (NVS) between $101.90 and $210.41 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $143.65. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$140.98 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.2%/yr | 8.5% | $101.90 |
| Base case | 5.2%/yr | 7.5% | $143.65 |
| Optimistic | 8.2%/yr | 6.5% | $210.41 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $234.05 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$140.98
Market-Implied Growth
+4.8%/yr
vs +8.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$101.90 – $210.41
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NVS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $12.9B · 1.90B shares · net debt $23.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$143.65
+1.9% vs $140.98
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $140.98; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $190 | $216 | $249 | $296 | $367 |
| 6.5% | $149 | $164 | $183 | $208 | $240 |
| 7.5% | $122 | $132 | $144 | $158 | $177 |
| 8.5% | $102 | $109 | $117 | $127 | $138 |
| 9.5% | $87.46 | $92.60 | $98.46 | $105 | $113 |
