NVR, Inc. (NVR) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values NVR, Inc. (NVR) between $7,177.79 and $12,020.32 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $8,956.60. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$6,764.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.7% | $7,177.79 |
| Base case | 2.5%/yr | 8.7% | $8,956.60 |
| Optimistic | 5.5%/yr | 7.7% | $12,020.32 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $7,713.66 | |
Current Price
$6,764.83
Market-Implied Growth
-4.4%/yr
vs +1.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7,177.79 – $12,020.32
model output — not a price target
NVR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NVR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.00B shares · net cash $904.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$8965.67
+32.5% vs $6764.83
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $6764.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $11369 | $12131 | $13076 | $14275 | $15849 |
| 7.7% | $9562 | $10047 | $10625 | $11327 | $12195 |
| 8.7% | $8259 | $8586 | $8966 | $9412 | $9944 |
| 9.7% | $7275 | $7505 | $7767 | $8068 | $8418 |
| 10.7% | $6506 | $6673 | $6861 | $7073 | $7314 |
About NVR, Inc.
NVR, Inc. functions as a prominent home construction company within the United States, organized into two primary divisions: homebuilding and mortgage banking. Within its homebuilding segment, the company develops and sells various residential units, including detached houses, townhouses, and condominium complexes, marketed under the brand names Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes. Ryan Homes typically targets individuals purchasing their first home or those in their initial property upgrade, while NVHomes and Heartland Homes cater to a more affluent clientele of move-up and luxury buyers. Additionally, NVR offers a range of financial services to its homebuilding customers through its mortgage banking arm, which includes brokering title insurance, performing title searches for loan settlements, and transferring mortgage loans to investors in the secondary markets without retaining servicing rights. The company's operational footprint spans numerous states and the District of Columbia, encompassing Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee. Established in 1980, NVR, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Reston, Virginia.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- CEO
- Eugene James Bredow