TGM's two-stage DCF values NVR, Inc. (NVR) between $7,272.92 and $12,014.11 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $8,924.07. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$6,390.14 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.6% | $7,272.92 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.6% | $8,924.07 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.6% | $12,014.11 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $7,735.81 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$6,390.14
Market-Implied Growth
-6.1%/yr
vs +1.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7,272.92 – $12,014.11
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NVR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.00B shares · net cash $904.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$8924.07
+39.7% vs $6390.14
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $6390.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $10953 | $11911 | $13101 | $14621 | $16629 |
| 7.6% | $9208 | $9844 | $10603 | $11527 | $12674 |
| 8.6% | $7955 | $8403 | $8924 | $9537 | $10270 |
| 9.6% | $7011 | $7341 | $7718 | $8150 | $8653 |
| 10.6% | $6275 | $6527 | $6809 | $7128 | $7491 |
