TGM's two-stage DCF values NVR, Inc. (NVR) between $7,177.79 and $12,182.58 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $9,075.19. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$6,268.15 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.7% | $7,177.79 |
| Base case | 2.8%/yr | 8.7% | $9,075.19 |
| Optimistic | 5.8%/yr | 7.7% | $12,182.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $7,227.08 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$6,268.15
Market-Implied Growth
-6.3%/yr
vs +3.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7,177.79 – $12,182.58
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NVR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.00B shares · net cash $904.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$9075.19
+44.8% vs $6268.15
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $6268.15; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $11114 | $12067 | $13245 | $14740 | $16700 |
| 7.7% | $9365 | $10001 | $10759 | $11677 | $12812 |
| 8.7% | $8101 | $8552 | $9075 | $9689 | $10420 |
| 9.7% | $7147 | $7480 | $7859 | $8294 | $8799 |
| 10.7% | $6400 | $6655 | $6940 | $7262 | $7628 |
